View From the Balcony

Writers Block

2006-04-03

Contrary to Popular Belief

Contrary to Popular Belief

"Truth is perhaps . . . a dynamic compound of opposites, savage contraries for a moment conjoined" A. Bartlett Giamatti.

When I was a kid, I was the contrary varmit of our neighborhood. To the chagrin of my parents, whatever the status quo of the day appeared to be, I was on the opposite side of the fence.

Thus if there was war in the neighborhood, I opted for peaceful solutions. If there was peace in the neighborhood, I backed off. I watched but I did not really participate in the so -called peace. Maybe I was born old. Maybe I was born with some inbred mastery of the human condition. All I know is, peace seldom lasts.

Contrary to popular belief, change is inevitable. Someone will always rock the boat, reinvent the wheel or test the waters wtih contrary opinion.

So where is all of this leading to? The results of an open discussion - where 300,000 people got burned investing in scam HYIP programs and the feeling that perhaps 1% of these people will have learned their lesson.

The other 99.9% are contrarians at heart.

They employ a contrarian technique - that is they do the opposite of what is the norm for what other investors are doing. When the majority of investors are bearish, a contrarian is bullish and vice versa.

Having said that, the bottom line seems to be that 99.9% of the HYIP crowd have not learned the basic lesson - when the market is peaking, most people are already or nearly fully invested and have no additional funds to make more purchases.

If you recognise the sudden change then you recognize the peak factor and you get out.

Are you a Contarian? Are You Ready For Change?

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Fran Klasinski

Posted at 06:48:13 PM | Post Comment | Read Comments (0)

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